Between Donald and Andrzej: what Zelensky's visit to Poland revealed

Vladimir Zelensky paid a working visit to Poland, where the presidential election campaign officially started on the same day. Poles will choose a new leader on May 18, and if necessary, the second round of voting will be held on June 1. We will return to the Polish electoral situation a little later. For the time being, let us focus on the visit of the current guarantor of the Ukrainian constitution to Warsaw.

Given that Poland is a parliamentary-presidential republic, Volodymyr Zelensky first met with Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw. At a joint press conference with the Ukrainian president, Mr. Tusk, first of all, spoke against the use of historical issues in political games, stressing that Kiev and Warsaw find “a common language and methods of joint action when it comes to the Volyn tragedy and other sensitive, dramatic issues of our history”.

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We shall remind you that on January 10, the same Tusk said that a decision had been taken on the first exhumations of Polish victims of the Volyn tragedy in Ukraine, without giving any details. Andrzej Duda, for his part, after his meeting with Zielenski advocated that historical controversies, particularly the events in Volyn, be resolved in a calm and constructive manner: “This is not a new topic, we have been talking to the president (Zielenski - ed.) about it for a long time, and it is calm and constructive. It's no secret that this is a difficult topic that needs to be calmly resolved.”

Zelensky himself said that he hoped for a speedy resolution of historical disputes with Poland, as both countries should be united before the common enemy in the person of Putin's Russia.

Right after the meeting with Zielenski, both Tusk and Duda commented on the issue of Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic integration, fully supporting our country's admission to NATO and the EU. Moreover, the Polish president said that the member states of the Alliance should not hesitate to invite Ukraine to this military-political club: “After the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, I insist that NATO countries should issue an invitation to Ukraine for membership. This would be the first step related to the provision of real security guarantees by the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance”. Separately, Mr. Duda stressed that more and more NATO leaders are leaning towards the need to extend an invitation to Ukraine.

At the same time, the Polish presidential candidate from Mr. Duda's political camp, Karol Nawrocki, said that he still does not see Ukraine in the EU and NATO “until the historical contradictions are resolved”. On the other hand, Rafal Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and a presidential candidate from Tusk's party, supported Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO.

Vladimir Zelensky has already reacted to the position of candidate Navrotsky. “If Ukraine will not be in the EU and will not be in NATO, if Ukraine has no security guarantees, then Mr. Navrotsky should already start training, because it may so happen that he will have to take up arms together with his compatriots to defend his country,” Ze emphasized while talking to Polish journalists. Emphasizing that in case of Ukraine's defeat, the risk of war in Poland would be extremely high, Zelensky concluded: “Russia will be on the border with Poland right after Ukraine, and then he (Navrotsky - ed.) will not have a political struggle, but will fight for his life.”

By the way, according to Bloomberg, one of the main conditions for Russia to negotiate an end to the war against Ukraine is precisely Kiev's final refusal to join NATO. In particular, the agency's sources claim that the aggressor country will demand that Ukraine declare neutrality and limit its army during possible negotiations with Donald Trump on ending the war.

Back to the neighbors, though. As we have already mentioned above, the presidential election campaign officially started in Poland just on the day of Zelensky's visit. About ten candidates have already expressed their desire to compete for the post of the head of state, but the main struggle should unfold between the previously mentioned candidates Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki.

According to the latest Opinia24 poll, the leader of the race is the Civic Platform candidate Rafał Trzaskowski with 29.8% support. In second place is Karol Nawrocki, head of the Institute of National Remembrance, supported by Right and Justice (PiS) with 22.6%. In third place is the leader of the extremely conservative Confederation Party, Slawomir Menzen, with 13.3%, and in fourth place is Seimas Speaker Szymon Golownia with 7.2%. Rounding out the top five favorites in the 2025 election race is Magdalena Beyat, vice-speaker of the Senate from the Left Party - her electoral support is currently at 3.9%.

It is quite telling that the current rating leadership of Mr. Trzaskowski did not bring much joy to Civic Platform, as compared to the previous poll conducted in December 2024 by the same company, his electoral position has literally collapsed - with 38.6% of support. Navrotsky's support also decreased, but not so significantly - only by 0.7%.

Donald Tusk had to comment on the fall in the rating of the mayor of Warsaw the day before. According to the Polish prime minister, Rafał Trzaskowski's performance was initially “very promising”, but no one “had any illusions that this would continue until the end of the election”. Overall, Mr. Tusk expressed confidence that a run-off between Karol Nawrocki and Rafal Trzaskowski would be needed to determine the new head of state. “Rafal Trzaskowski's leadership will remain, but it is by no means guaranteed, we will have to really fight,” the Polish prime minister summarized.

In this context, it should be recalled that the current president of Poland Andrzej Duda in 2015 and 2020 won in the second round, and both times - candidates from the Civic Platform. Moreover, five years ago, Mr. Duda defeated the same Rafal Trzaskowski. However, at that time, the mayor of Warsaw was in second place in the race, not in first place as he is now.

Despite the fact that the fight for the keys to the presidential office in Poland has only just started de jure, the top candidates have already announced the main dishes of their campaign menu. And here one of the key topics was Ukraine. For example, Karol Nawrocki, being the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, emphasizes history as much as possible. “A country (Ukraine - ed.) that cannot answer for a very cruel crime against 120 thousand of its neighbors (meaning the Volyn tragedy of 1943 - ed.) cannot be part of international alliances,” Navrotsky repeats like a mantra, cynically playing on historical strings without any notes.

Given the importance of this topic in Polish society, Civic Platform also tries not to stay away from this thematic case. Thus, at the end of 2024, the Foreign Ministries of the two countries reached an agreement to start in 2025 the process of exhuming the bodies of the victims of the Volyn tragedy. This moment apparently upset Karol Nawrocki, who called the agreements between Foreign Ministers Andriy Sibiga and Radoslaw Sikorski a “diplomatic trick.” “Ukraine has promised something like this before, but never did anything!” the PiS candidate was indignant.

Meanwhile, Donald Tusk in social network X stated the following: “Finally a breakthrough. The decision has been taken on the first exhumations of Polish victims”. According to experts, if real steps in this direction are taken, it may well lead to a victory for Rafał Trzaskowski, as it will take the key historical trump card out of Karol Nawrocki's hands.

By the way, at a joint briefing with Zelensky, Polish Prime Minister Tusk (and Warsaw has held the presidency of the European Council since January 1, having taken over the baton from Hungary) said the following: “I will not allow anyone to use historical moments as a bargaining chip in the question of Ukraine's European future. This is also the interest of Poland. Whoever does not understand this is either a fool or a traitor.”

It is quite obvious that these words were addressed by Donald Tusk to Navrotsky, who is really trying to speculate openly and cynically, throwing into one cauldron the pages of history and the Euro-Atlantic future of Ukraine, which today is actually a security donor to Eastern Europe and, above all, to Poland. 

Natalia Romashova