Goodbye America: why and for how long Trump has frozen aid to Ukraine

After a hot in every sense of the word altercation with President Zelensky in the Oval Office, on the night of Tuesday, March 4, in Kiev, Trump suspended all military aid to Ukraine. About how long-term is this decision of the old-new master of the White House and what consequences it may lead to, read in the material Lenta.UA.

In the Ukrainian segment of social networks quite popular nowadays is a specific joke that says that if before our compatriots were afraid of night missile-drone arrivals from the swamps, now - news from the Trump administration. Indeed, taking into account the hour difference, it is in the deep night and early morning that more and more “greetings” are literally arriving daily from across the ocean in Kiev. The night of Tuesday, March 4 was no exception. At that time it became known that the U.S. President decided to stop all support to our country. However, we cannot say that this decision was a thunderclap, because shortly before, commenting on the words of the Ukrainian president that the settlement is still “very, very far away”, Trump wrote in social networks: “This is the worst statement that Zelensky could make, and America will not tolerate it for long! If someone doesn't want to make a deal, I don't think that person will be here for long.”

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In fact, shortly after this outburst, Trump ordered the suspension of all military aid to Ukraine. This was reported almost synchronously by Bloomberg and CNN, citing a White House official. According to the unnamed official, “The United States is suspending all current military aid to Ukraine until Trump determines that the country's leaders are demonstrating a good faith commitment to peace.” The official also said that the delivery of all U.S. military equipment not yet in Ukraine will be suspended, including weapons in transit on planes and ships or waiting in transit zones in Poland. The information was later confirmed by White House officials, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said aid through Poland had been suspended.

“Trump took office with $3.85 billion left over from the previous administration as part of the so-called presidential authority to reduce U.S. weapons stockpiles. It remained unclear whether the Trump administration would actually use those stockpiles for Ukraine. Be that as it may, Trump's decision goes beyond simply cutting off funding and jeopardizes aid already being provided or in progress. This includes supplies of critical ammunition, hundreds of guided multiple rocket launchers, anti-tank weapons and other assets,” Bloomberg notes, adding that Europe will not be able to fill the gap alone.

However, if EU countries agree to increase the amount of funds they send to Kiev by two or three times, it will practically offset the US withdrawal from the support program, some experts emphasize, stressing that EU countries have huge reserves for supplies, but they still limit the use of their weapons systems.

“President Trump has made it clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are suspending and reviewing our aid to make sure it is contributing to a solution,” Reuters quoted an unnamed Trump administration interlocutor as saying.

According to U.S. officials, without new military supplies, Ukraine will likely have enough weapons until the middle of the year to continue fighting Putin's Russia at its current pace. This is apparently partly to the credit of the Joe Biden administration, which dramatically increased arms shipments to Kiev before Trump's return to the White House, CNN notes.

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germany), whose calculations are considered by many military experts to be the most accurate, during the three years of full-scale war, the United States allocated €64 billion in military aid and €50 billion in financial allocations to Ukraine. In addition, Washington undertook logistical support for all foreign supplies, equipment repair and intelligence support for Kiev (the question of further Pentagon assistance in these areas is still open). The European Union's contribution to Ukraine over the same period amounted to €70 billion in humanitarian aid and €62 billion in military aid.

It should be noted that the U.S. began to assist the AFU with arms and equipment back in 2014, under President Barack Obama, and continued after the election of Donald Trump to the first term in 2016. At first, Washington supplied armored vehicles, boats and equipment, but then expanded the list to include small arms, light artillery and ammunition. In the same period, limited deliveries of portable anti-tank missile systems Javelin and anti-aircraft missiles Stinger began. After the outbreak of widespread war in February 2022, deliveries were greatly expanded.

There is nothing surprising in Trump's decision after his words that military support for Kiev is only bringing World War III closer, notes Konstantin Yeliseyev, a prominent Ukrainian diplomat.

“Apparently, we have the very case when the level of interpersonal relations between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump and their complex nature will directly determine the development of bilateral cooperation between Ukraine and the United States for the period of their cadence. What to do next? First and foremost, no matter how painful it may be, it is a dubious and hardly effective idea for Volodymyr Zelensky himself to hit the “deaf wall” of the White House. He will not be heard there, unless he decides, as Senator Lindsey Graham noted, to “change. That would mean abandoning the positions he so earnestly defended in the Oval Office, and therefore not an option. Therefore, it is necessary to identify an experienced and reputable negotiator from Ukraine (and fortunately we still have such negotiators) to conduct calm (not PR) shuttle diplomacy in order to develop confidence-building measures, remove irritants (this is not about suits and ties) and restore bridges,” Mr. Yeliseyev emphasizes.

He believes that Ukraine should now also focus as much as possible on restoring and developing bipartisan support in the United States: “Support has taken a serious blow, and the same Democrats will have to make considerable efforts to bring the Republican Party in its majority back to the Ukrainian track. The U.S. Republican Party should become a point of contact for Ukraine, involving all possible contacts and relations. Where the authorities have not worked, parliamentary diplomacy and inter-party contacts can work. Ukraine has the potential for such relations, primarily because of the capabilities of the International Democratic Union, of which the Republican Party is a member. Let's hope that the state wisdom will be enough to ensure that the potential of this interaction is no longer kept under sanctions and the sign of monopoly on international communication only for the Bankova”.

Yeliseyev, an experienced diplomat, emphasizes that Trump is an element that should not be fought, but directed in the right direction.

At the same time, the well-known journalist Leonid Shvets sarcastically states: “The Ukrainian people are immensely grateful to Donald Trump for his warm love for Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and tangible assistance to the Russian army, which is envied by the leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea himself, the sun-like comrade Kim Jong-un. We will always remember, we will never forget. Your name will henceforth be inscribed in huge letters in the history of our country. Poems, songs and fairy tales will be composed about you, where your name will go in direct connection with the name of Putin, a true friend of Ukraine. Thank you, America! You're fucked!”.

Romashova Natalia

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